Dick Morris: "Rice candidacy would destroy the electoral chances of the Democratic Party"
Dick Morris' new column takes the point of view that Hillary will be a very formidable opponent in '08, and I think he's right on that account. His solution? Condolezza Rice.
Morris' characterization of Secretary Rice certainly fits her,
Americas first black female secretary of state is doing in public what she has always done in private speaking frankly about Americas priorities and the realities of the post-Cold War world. As she jokes with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, loosening up his dogmatic anti-American policies, lectures Russia about freedom and warns Israel of tough decisions ahead, one thing is obvious: A star is being born.The meat of his argument however is in the demographic matchup that a Hillary-Condi race would set up. Because you would have a liberal woman running against a black conservative woman the normal demographic voting patterns may just fly out the window.
The political fact is that a Rice candidacy would destroy the electoral chances of the Democratic Party by undermining its demographic base. John Kerry got 54 percent of his vote from three groups that, together, account for about a third of the American electorate: African-Americans, Hispanics and single white women. Rice would cut deeply into any Democrats margin among these three groups and would, most especially, deny Clinton the strong support she would otherwise receive from each of them.
Make no mistake, a female GOP candidate could face some troubles in the primaries, but Rice is perfectly situated to placate the right while appealing to the moderates and centrists in this country.
As a social conservative and deeply religious person, she would face no bar in winning the votes of the Christian right, so crucial to winning the Republican nomination. Unlike former New York Mayor Rudy Guiliani[sic] (R) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) both of whom could probably win in November she would be very attractive to the pro-life, anti-gun-control, anti-affirmative-action base of the GOP.When the religious right and gun advocates step into the primary booth and their choices are Rice, McCain, and Giuliani who do you think most would vote for? And Morris' final point may very well be the one that could put her over the top,
America longs to put the period on the disgraceful chapter in our nations history that began when the first slave arrived at Jamestown, Va., more than 400 years ago. We also want to send a message to every girl, and every African-American or Hispanic baby, that there is no ceiling and that you can rise as far as your ability will carry you. The day Condi Rice is sworn in as president, regardless of the fate of her administration, that message and the punctuation of our history of racism will be obvious.
Bottom Line: Rice could be a very viable candidate in the national election against Hillary, if the GOP will nominate a woman. I think the time is coming, will it be here in 3 years? We'll see.
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